Grover's Take on Things

Being a numbers/stats type of guy, I just had to know what the polling data are showing about the NC Family Amendment. Here’s what I found Monday night:

First of all, Rasmussen appears not to have polled on the Amendment. Pity.

Public Policy Polling (described by the Charlotte Observer as “a left-leaning Raleigh-based firm”):
• January 5-6, 2012 – 56% in favor, 34% opposed, and 10% are undecided; margin of error was +/-3.5%
• April 20-22, 2012 – 54% in favor, 40% opposed, and 6% undecided; margin of error was +/-2.9%
• April 27-29, 2012 – 55% in favor, 41% opposed, and 4% undecided; margin of error was +/-3.1%
• May 5-6, 2012 – Final Poll – 55% in favor, 39% opposed, and 6% undecided; margin of error was +/-3.1%

Finally, the Civitas Institute (“North Carolina’s Conservative Voice”) just released this press release:
“Support for the proposed amendment to the state constitution that would give the current definition of marriage additional legal protection remains strong as One-Stop Absentee Voting enters its final days. Applying survey results to current voter turnout trends and anticipated election day voting would project the amendment winning by no less than a 16 percentage-point margin.
“A survey of partisan primary voters shows the amendment winning among Democrats by a slim 48-to-44 percent margin and among Republicans by a 78-to-15 percent margin. The largest supporters of the amendment among Democratic voters are black voters (38 percent of the sample), who support the amendment by a 2-to-1 margin — 63 to 30 percent. Self-identified conservative Democrats (23 percent of the sample) support the amendment by an 82-to-13 percent margin.
“Among Republican primary voters, the weakest support for the amendment was found with self-identified liberal/moderate Republicans (21 percent of the sample), who supported the amendment by a 49-to-46 percent margin.”